With Aspen Ideas Festival in town for the past week and the July 4th holiday tomorrow, Aspen is officially in full summer bloom! It has been wonderful welcoming so many of our friends and clients back to town in the past week. We dropped Ellis off for her first sleepaway camp in Minocqua, WI last week and miss her something fierce. But we have decided in the spirit of her trying new things, we would do so also and take advantage of all of the amazing recreational offerings in our area. This week has been full of new hikes (and some old favorites), wake boarding, and a pickleball lesson. We expect the adventures to continue this summer and look forward to seeing you out on the trails and around town.
The real estate market has been no less exciting. When we look at real estate in Aspen and try to make an educated estimate of where prices may be heading, it is helpful to look at the inventory and absorption rate. Historically when there is over two years of inventory, you will start to see downward pressure on pricing. Conversely, when there is under a year of inventory, we see appreciation or a stable market.
While helping our clients with the recent property value reassessments and protests, we took a deep dive into the statistics in individual neighborhoods throughout Aspen and Snowmass Village. Here is a look at the inventory and absorption rate by neighborhood. The numbers were compiled by looking at a rolling twelve month period.
Single Family - West End: There were thirteen single family home sales with an average sale price of $17,197,400 or $3,597 psf. There is one home under contract asking $10,945,000 or $3,313 psf. There are twenty active listings with an average list price of $17,608,000 of $4,110 psf. Theoretically, that means it will take about eighteen months to absorb the active inventory in the West End. It is notable that four of the active listings are just plans for homes to be built in the next 2-4 years. If you remove those, there are 16 active homes or about 1.2 years of inventory. Unless we see a large influx of homes or a large number of sales this summer, we would suspect the values for homes in the West End will remain stable and in line with recent sales.
Single Family – East Aspen: There have been sixteen single family home sales with an average sale price of $11,254,688 or $3,207.60 psf. There is one home under contract asking $11,985,000 or $5,166 psf. There are sixteen active listings with an average list price of $14,467,688 or $3,033 psf. Theoretically, that means it will take about one year to absorb the active inventory in the East Aspen.
Single Family – Red Mountain: There have been ten single family home sales with an average sale price of $27,399,500 or $3,257psf. There is one home under contract asking $8,795,000 or $1,903 psf. This sale will be considered land value. There are five active listings with an average list price of $30,839,000 or $4,440 psf. Theoretically, it will take about six months to absorb the active inventory on Red Mountain.
Single Family – West Aspen: There have been fourteen single family home sales with an average sale price of $12,271,571 or $3,093 psf. There is one home under contract asking $14,950,000 or $1583 psf. There are fourteen active listings with an average list price of $15,553,214 or $3,107 psf. Theoretically, it will take about one year to absorb the active inventory in the West Aspen.
Condo – Aspen Central Core: Not including penthouse sales, there have been forty-five condo sales in the Central Core of Aspen with an average sale price of $3,819,289 or $3,329 psf. There are six condos under contract with an average asking price of $2,890,458 or $3,149 psf. There are forty-two active listings with an average list price of $3,814,119 or $3,639 psf. Theoretically, it will take about nine months to absorb the active condo inventory in the Central Core.
Townhomes – Aspen Central Core: There have been four townhome sales in the Central Core of Aspen with an average sale price of $17,736,250 or $4,038 psf. There are four active townhome listings with an average list price of $23,233,333 or $4,965 psf. Theoretically, it will take about seven months to absorb the active townhome inventory in the Central Core.
While we certainly have more inventory than we did during the 2021/2022 real estate cycle, the numbers indicate that pricing should remain stable. However, overpriced listings will most likely need to adjust their asking prices to align with recent sales adjusting for condition and location.
Single Family – Snowmass: There have only been eighteen single family home sales with an average sale price of $7,574,159 or 1,675 psf. There are 4 homes under contract with an average asking price of $7,223,750 or $1,659 psf. There are 30 active listings with an average list price of $9,179,567 or $2,057 psf. Theoretically, it will take about 1.6 years to absorb the active single family home inventory in Snowmass. We suspect we will see price reductions in the single family home market in Snowmass to be more in line with average sales over the last twelve months.
Base Village (new of newer construction from 2006 to present) – Snowmass: We have made this a category of it’s own since the sales prices in Base Village are well above the numbers we see in sales of the older existing Snowmass inventory. There have been thirty-two condo sales with an average sale price of $2,414,344 or $1,953 psf. There are fifty-two properties under contract, largely in the Cirque at Viceroy building which is under construction, with an average asking price of $5,013,588 or $2,761 psf. There are 38 active listings with an average list price of $4,855,474 or $2,964 psf. Theoretically, it will take about 1.2 years to absorb the active Base Village condo inventory in Snowmass.
Condo market on Mountain (NOT BASE VILLAGE) - Snowmass There have been forty-eight condo sales with an average sale price of $2,459,422 or $1,544 psf. There are three condos under contract with an average asking price of $1,079,000 or $1,345 psf. There are fourteen active listings with an average list price of $1,610,429 or $1,688.56. Theoretically, it will take about three months to absorb the active condo (non-Base Village) inventory in Snowmass.
What is clear is we are seeing the real estate market shift back to a more seasonal selling season and a calming of the hyper market that was fueled by COVID from 2020-2022. As always, if you are thinking of buying and selling, it’s important to have a real estate advisor with their pulse on the changing market so you can get the best guidance. We are here as a resource to answer any questions or discuss real estate at any time.
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